United Russia's result cleansed of falsifications is about 34%, Novaya Gazeta Europe has calculated

Data analysis by Novaya Gazeta Europe data journalist Alesya Sokolova, published on 21 September 2026. Applying physicist Sergey Shpilkin's method to the distribution of polling-station results by turnout, it finds the cluster of stations without signs of fraud centred at 34 per cent for United Russia, which it takes as the probable result without falsification, 1.7 times below the official 57.8 per cent. The calculation assumes that votes for all other parties are genuine; it excludes Moscow, where most voters used remote electronic voting, several regions suspected of mass transfer of other parties' votes to United Russia, and all electronic votes. Two electoral experts agreed with the calculation, and the outlet notes that the method chiefly detects ballot stuffing.