MPF's situation assessment ahead of the election

The agency's standing assessment of the risk of foreign information influence against the 2026 elections, first published on 25 March 2026 and last updated on 23 September 2026. It states that Sweden and Swedish elections are currently not a priority target for Russian information influence, although Sweden can be targeted and the situation can change quickly; that Russia is the primary threat actor for improper information influence against Sweden and, in the agency's assessment, the main threat linked to the elections; and that the volume of influence directed at Sweden over the past year has been significantly lower than in 2022 and 2023, when Sweden was subject to two larger influence campaigns. It notes that generative AI lowers the threshold for influence and that one recurring pattern is a single actor pushing contradictory messages, for instance through bot networks, to deepen division.