Evidence Lab

Zambie · August 13, 2026

Zambia 2026 General Election

Hakainde Hichilema was declared re-elected on 18 August 2026 with 2,965,326 votes against 1,856,217 for Brian Mundubile, shares of 60.49 and 37.87 per cent of valid votes, on a turnout of 57.23 per cent. The Electoral Commission of Zambia read the totals out at the national results centre and published no figures of its own, and accounts of its declaration reported the winning share variously as 60.5, 60.7 and about 61.4 per cent. The nonpartisan Christian Churches Monitoring Group, verifying the count from a national random sample of 1,500 polling stations, agreed that Hichilema had passed the 50 per cent threshold but found the official turnout and both leading candidates' shares outside its estimated ranges, and concluded that votes had been added in 30 constituencies. No court examined any of it: the courts were closed on 24 August, the last day of the seven-day window for a presidential petition under Article 103, and the Secretary to the Cabinet stated the following day that the period had expired without the judiciary receiving any petition.

Co je prokázáno · 8

Statistické anomáliePotvrzeno

The declared national result fell outside the range produced by an independent verification drawn from a nationally representative random sample of polling stations.

Falšování výsledkůPotvrzeno

Citizen observers concluded that votes had been added to the official totals in 30 of the 226 constituencies, through increased votes for the governing party.

Porušení procesuPotvrzeno

The Electoral Commission suspended counting and the announcement of results nationally on 14 August, and as of 29 August 2026 had published none of the underlying polling-station or constituency records.

Porušení procesuPotvrzeno

The courts were closed on 24 August 2026, the last day of the constitutional seven-day window for challenging the presidential result, and no petition was filed.

Porušení procesuPotvrzeno

State-owned media gave the governing party an overwhelming share of election coverage, and EU observers directly witnessed state resources used for campaigning.

Porušení procesuPotvrzeno

The electoral system was rewritten within months of polling day, and the delimitation that created 70 new constituencies was carried out under a formula that was never set out in law.

Porušení procesuPotvrzeno

The 2025 cyber laws were applied to online political speech during the campaign and produced documented self-censorship.

Informační operacePotvrzeno

Paid and organic online campaigning was heavily asymmetric, and supporter pages on both sides ran discreditation campaigns against rivals and against the electoral commission.

Co není prokázáno · 3

Falšování výsledkůVyvráceno

The opposition claim that Brian Mundubile actually won the presidential election is not supported by the independent verification of the count.

Informační operacePotvrzeno více zdroji

No coordinated influence operation was identified behind the false claims that circulated during the campaign.

Statistické anomáliePotvrzeno více zdroji

The parliamentary outcome cannot be verified from anything the Electoral Commission has published.

Důkazy použité v tomto případě · 15

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