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Poland 2025 Presidential Election

May 18, 2025 – June 1, 2025

Karol Nawrocki won the run-off on record turnout. The campaign saw documented Russia-linked information operations that authorities countered, and the result’s validation became the subject of an institutional dispute over the validating court chamber.

Official results

Certified by State Electoral Commission (PKW)Turnout 71.6%

Round 1

  • Rafał Trzaskowski31.4%
  • Karol Nawrocki29.5%
  • Sławomir Mentzen14.8%
  • Grzegorz Braun6.3%

Round 2

  • Karol Nawrocki50.9%10,606,877
  • Rafał Trzaskowski49.1%10,237,286
Sources:12

The Integrity Ledger

What the evidence establishes, and what it does not — side by side, each finding sourced and tiered.

What is established

  • Information operationsConfirmed

    Under the government’s “Parasol Wyborczy” (Election Umbrella) programme, NASK and partners handled roughly 27,500 potential incidents, reported over 16,000 accounts linked to influence operations to platforms, and identified 176 candidate-impersonation incidents (169 blocked).

    Sources:1
  • Information operationsCorroborated

    The Russia-linked Doppelganger operation targeted the campaign on X, mimicking the branding of legitimate Polish outlets to push anti-EU and anti-Ukraine narratives; researchers attributed it to Russia’s EU-sanctioned Social Design Agency.

    Sources:1
  • Process violationsConfirmed

    The Supreme Court chamber received more than 54,000 election protests and confirmed 21 instances of irregularities, but ruled that they did not affect the result and that a full recount was not permitted under the Electoral Code.

    Sources:12
  • Foreign interferenceAlleged

    NASK reported unlabeled political advertisements on Facebook that may have been financed from abroad, asked Meta to halt them, and referred the matter to the Internal Security Agency (ABW).

    Sources:1

What is not established

  • Result falsificationDebunked

    That the count was falsified or the outcome would change — not established. The only body to adjudicate found the confirmed irregularities immaterial to the result.

    Sources:12
  • Process violationsContested

    The legitimacy of the Supreme Court chamber that validated the election is itself contested — rejected by the current government, European courts and many Supreme Court judges. The dispute concerns the validating body’s status, not evidence that the tally was wrong.

    Sources:1
  • Foreign interferenceAlleged

    That the documented information operations measurably changed voter behaviour or the outcome — not established. Observers document the activity and the countermeasures, not a decisive effect on the result.

    Sources:12

Process assessment

ODIHR assessed the election as competitive and efficiently managed with fundamental freedoms respected, while noting that authorities had to deploy countermeasures against disinformation and foreign interference, and flagging media polarization including by the public broadcaster.

Sources:1

Sources7

Observer reportOSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR)October 21, 2025
Poland, presidential election 2025 — ODIHR final report
OriginalArchive pending
Official reportMinistry of Digital Affairs / NASK-PIBSeptember 17, 2025
Report of the “Parasol Wyborczy” (Election Umbrella) programme
OriginalArchived
JournalismPolish Press Agency (PAP)July 1, 2025
Supreme Court confirms validity of Poland’s 2025 presidential election
OriginalArchived
DatasetState Electoral Commission (PKW)June 1, 2025
Official results portal, 2025 Polish presidential election
OriginalArchived
ResearchAlliance4Europe (with Debunk.org, ISD, NASK)April 17, 2025
Illegal Doppelganger operation: targeting the Polish elections
OriginalArchived
Official reportNASK (National Research Institute)May 15, 2025
NASK statement on an attempted interference in the presidential campaign
OriginalArchive pending