CCMG Independent Assessment of the Accuracy of the Official Results for the 2026 Presidential Election

Using official polling-station results collected by monitors at 1,491 of a nationally representative sample of 1,500 polling stations, CCMG's process and results verification estimated turnout at 53.5 per cent plus or minus 0.6, Hakainde Hichilema at 56.0 per cent plus or minus 1.7, Brian Mundubile at 42.3 per cent plus or minus 1.7, rejected ballots at 2.8 per cent plus or minus 0.1, and every other candidate at no more than 0.5 per cent each. It states that the official results for turnout and for both leading candidates do not fall within those ranges, attributing the gap to 30 constituencies where official turnout exceeded the upper limit of its estimate by more than ten points through increased UPND votes, and concludes that in those 30 constituencies votes were added. In four constituencies where it obtained the Records of Proceeding at the Totalling of Votes, covering 24 sampled polling stations, all figures including rejected ballots matched at 13 stations; UPND totals at tally centres were on average 178 votes higher than the polling-station records at 10 stations, and an NRPUP total was 10 votes higher at 1 station. CCMG states that Hichilema received the most presidential votes and more than the 50 per cent threshold and that the variances identified do not alter the overall outcome, while calling on the ECZ to publish all 226 totalling records and images of the GEN20 forms from all 13,529 polling stations.