Russia's Ruling Party Again Benefits From Millions Of Statistically Anomalous Votes

Data analysis by RFE/RL data journalist Ivan Gutterman, published on 23 September 2026. Using precinct-level party-list protocols published by the Central Election Commission and collected by Pyotr Zhizhin, in a copy fixed on 23 September that leaves out Moscow, online voting and a few regions not yet reported, it applies the Shpilkin method and finds United Russia's shares forming two peaks and a 'comet tail' in which higher turnout predicts a higher United Russia result, a shape no other party shows. It estimates some 18 million votes above what the model predicts; without them the party would have received about 35 per cent rather than the official 57.8 per cent. It states that the analysis cannot show how any extra votes were produced and depends on which stations are used as the baseline.