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Nicaragua 2021 General Election

November 7, 2021

The Supreme Electoral Council declared Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo re-elected with 75.87 per cent of valid votes on a reported turnout of 65.26 per cent, and the FSLN took 75 of the 90 directly elected National Assembly seats. In the six months before the vote the Council cancelled the legal status of three opposition parties, including the only one that had registered an opposition presidential ticket, and seven presidential aspirants were detained. No impartial international observation mission was invited, and on 12 November 2021 the OAS General Assembly declared the elections neither free, fair nor transparent and without democratic legitimacy.

Viralliset tulokset

Vahvistanut Consejo Supremo Electoral (Supreme Electoral Council)Äänestysprosentti 65,3%

The table shows the presidential and vice-presidential race as declared in the CSE's third provisional report of 10 November 2021, covering 99.99 per cent of tally sheets from 13,459 polling boards in 3,106 voting centres. Percentages are of the 2,759,743 valid votes; there were 2,921,430 votes cast in total and 161,687 null ballots, and the six party shares sum exactly to the valid total. The same ballot filled 90 National Assembly seats and 20 Central American Parliament seats; the FSLN won 75 of the 90 Assembly seats, the PLC 9, the ALN 2, the PLI 2, APRE 1 and YATAMA 1. Nicaragua holds no presidential run-off: the IACHR records that the 2014 constitutional reform eliminated the second round and made a simple majority sufficient, superseding the threshold of 40 per cent of valid votes, or 35 per cent with a five-point lead over the runner-up, that the 2000 reform had introduced.

  • FSLN (Daniel Ortega)75,9%2 093 834

    Frente Sandinista de Liberacion Nacional; Rosario Murillo elected vice-president on the same ticket.

  • PLC (Walter Espinoza)14,3%395 406

    Partido Liberal Constitucionalista; as runner-up Espinoza took a seat in the National Assembly under article 133 of the Constitution.

  • CCN (Guillermo Osorno)3,3%89 853

    Camino Cristiano Nicaraguense.

  • ALN (Marcelo Montiel)3,1%85 711

    Alianza Liberal Nicaraguense.

  • APRE (Gerson Gutierrez)1,8%48 429

    Alianza por la Republica.

  • PLI (Mauricio Orue)1,7%46 510

    Partido Liberal Independiente.

Lähteet:12345

The Integrity Ledger

Mitä näyttö osoittaa ja mitä se ei osoita — rinnakkain, jokainen havainto lähteistettynä ja luokiteltuna.

Mikä on osoitettu

  • MenettelyrikkomuksetVahvistettu

    The electoral authority cancelled the legal status of three opposition parties during the electoral period, including the only party that had registered an opposition presidential ticket.

    Lisätietoja

    OHCHR records that the Council dissolved the Conservative Party and annulled the legal personality of the Party of Democratic Restoration on 18 May 2021, and annulled that of Ciudadanos por la Libertad on 6 August 2021, only hours after a complaint had been presented by another political party and four days after that party had registered the presidential ticket of Oscar Sobalvarro and Berenice Quezada. The IACHR documents the same three cancellations but dates the Restoration Party's to 19 May and the Conservative Party's to 20 May, and reports that the August resolution was said to have been adopted in violation of the Nicaraguan Constitution. Urnas Abiertas and International IDEA likewise record the cancellation of three opposition parties during the electoral period.

    Lähteet:123
  • MenettelyrikkomuksetVahvistettu

    Seven presidential aspirants were deprived of their liberty before the candidate registration deadline, which in practice removed them from the contest.

    Lisätietoja

    OHCHR found that seven pre-candidates were arbitrarily deprived of liberty between 2 June and 24 July 2021 and that keeping them in detention or house arrest with no means of communication de facto prevented them from participating. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights, ruling on provisional measures for 22 beneficiaries of whom 21 were then detained, found that the detentions and prosecutions prima facie showed a process of harassment and criminalisation that would have had effects on those persons' participation in the November general elections, and held that Nicaragua's rejection of its release orders amounted to contempt of the Court.

    Lähteet:123
  • MenettelyrikkomuksetVahvistettu

    No impartial international observation mission was present; the electoral law had replaced the category of observer with that of accompanier.

    Lisätietoja

    Electoral Law No. 1070 substituted electoral companions for electoral observers, and the president of the CSE said companions would not act as impartial international observers. The CSE reported 232 companions from 27 countries. OHCHR records that no impartial international observers were invited despite repeated OAS calls, and that at least seven international journalists were refused entry.

    Lähteet:12
  • InformaatiovaikuttaminenVahvistettu

    Six days before the vote Meta removed a cross-platform troll farm it attributed to the government of Nicaragua and the governing party, run largely from state institutions.

    Lisätietoja

    Meta removed 937 Facebook accounts, 140 Pages, 24 Groups and 363 Instagram accounts; about 585,000 accounts followed one or more of the Pages, about 74,500 had joined one or more of the Groups and about 125,000 followed one or more of the Instagram accounts, and the network had spent around 12,000 US dollars on advertising. It said the operation was run primarily by employees of the telecommunications and postal regulator TELCOR from the postal service headquarters in Managua, with smaller clusters at the Supreme Court and the social security institute, and had run across seven platforms since April 2018. OHCHR recorded the same takedown, describing it as a network of over 1,000 accounts, and noted that Twitter and YouTube also closed accounts associated with it.

    Lähteet:12
  • MenettelyrikkomuksetVahvistettu

    The OAS General Assembly declared the 7 November elections neither free, fair nor transparent and without democratic legitimacy.

    Lisätietoja

    Resolution AG/RES. 2978 (LI-O/21), adopted at the fourth plenary session on 12 November 2021, also concluded that democratic institutions in Nicaragua had been seriously undermined by the Government, reiterated calls for the release of political candidates and political prisoners, and instructed the Permanent Council to complete a collective assessment by 30 November. OHCHR records that the Government announced on 19 November 2021 that it was withdrawing Nicaragua's membership of the OAS, a process that takes two years.

    Lähteet:12
  • Tilastolliset poikkeamatVahvistettu useista lähteistä

    The official turnout figure and the citizen observatory's estimate differ by some 47 percentage points, and no adjudicating body has resolved the gap.

    Lisätietoja

    The CSE reported 2,921,430 votes cast and turnout of 65.26 per cent. The Congressional Research Service records that the Nicaraguan opposition observation group Urnas Abiertas, which it says had 1,450 monitors trying to observe the elections, estimated turnout at approximately 18 per cent. The CSE published only aggregate national and constituency totals, so the two figures cannot be tested against one another.

    Lähteet:12

Mikä ei ole osoitettu

  • Tulosten väärentäminenVäitetty

    No audit, recount or court ruling has examined whether the declared vote totals match the ballots cast.

    Lisätietoja

    The CSE published only aggregate totals by party, national and by constituency, and gave parties three days to lodge review appeals; no polling-station tally sheets were published, and none of the sources cited here records an audit, a recount or a judicial examination of the count. The OAS resolution and the UN and IACHR findings address the conditions under which the vote was held, not the arithmetic of the tally, so falsification of the count itself is documented as an allegation rather than a finding.

    Lähteet:123
  • Tilastolliset poikkeamatVäitetty

    The true level of participation is not established by either the official figure or the observatory estimate.

    Lisätietoja

    The Urnas Abiertas figure rests on what its 1,450 monitors were able to observe rather than on a count of ballots, and the group's own election-day methodology has not been published; the official figure cannot be checked because station-level records were not published. Neither number has been verified by an independent audit.

    Lähteet:12
  • Ulkomainen sekaantuminenVäitetty

    No cited body attributed foreign state interference in this election.

    Lisätietoja

    The only platform takedown associated with the vote was attributed by Meta to the government of Nicaragua and the FSLN, that is to domestic state actors. Meta removed the network under its policy against foreign or government interference, but named no foreign actor and described the operation as targeting domestic audiences. Nothing in the OAS, UN, IACHR or Inter-American Court record cited here makes a finding of foreign interference.

    Lähteet:123
  • InformaatiovaikuttaminenVäitetty

    The removal of a state-run inauthentic network does not establish that it changed how people voted or whether they voted.

    Lisätietoja

    Meta reported reach figures for the network but made no assessment of electoral effect, and OHCHR framed the abuse of public institutions as incompatible with a genuine electoral process without claiming a measurable impact on the result.

    Lähteet:12
  • MenettelyrikkomuksetVäitetty

    The claim that roughly a million voters were struck from the register is a technical estimate that no authority has confirmed or rebutted.

    Lisätietoja

    Urnas Abiertas and International IDEA compared a 2021 register of 4,478,334 with 5,095,747 in 2017 and argued that natural growth should have produced about 5.5 million entries. The CSE never published the register or explained the change, so the size of any exclusion remains unverified.

    Lähteet:1

Prosessiarvio

There was no independent assessment of election-day administration, because no impartial international mission observed the vote and the president of the CSE said that the accompanier category which replaced observers in Electoral Law No. 1070 would not act as impartial international observers. The assessments that exist are of the conditions surrounding the vote: OHCHR and the IACHR documented the dissolution of opposition parties, the detention of presidential aspirants and one-sided coverage by government-owned broadcasters, the Inter-American Court found the state in contempt of its release orders, and the OAS General Assembly concluded that the elections had no democratic legitimacy. The CSE, for its part, ran the vote under the slogan 'free elections, sovereign elections' and reported a historic level of citizen participation, and its proclamation resolution states that it guaranteed the highest democratic standards of participation, inclusion, transparency and equality.

Lähteet:123456

Tilastolliset huomautukset

Lähteet12

Virallinen raporttiConsejo Supremo Electoral de NicaraguaNovember 10, 2021Uusi
CSE brinda Tercer Informe Provisional de las Elecciones Generales 2021
AlkuperäinenArkistoitu
Virallinen raporttiConsejo Supremo Electoral de Nicaragua / La Gaceta, Diario OficialNovember 26, 2021Uusi
Proclamacion de Electos, Elecciones Generales 2021, La Gaceta - Diario Oficial No. 219
AlkuperäinenArkistointi odottaa
AineistoInter-Parliamentary Union (Parline)December 15, 2021Uusi
Nicaragua National Assembly, November 2021 election results
AlkuperäinenArkistointi odottaa
Virallinen raporttiGeneral Assembly of the Organization of American StatesNovember 12, 2021Uusi
AG/RES. 2978 (LI-O/21): The Situation in Nicaragua
AlkuperäinenArkistointi odottaa
TarkkailuraporttiOffice of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human RightsFebruary 24, 2022Uusi
Situation of human rights in Nicaragua: Report of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (A/HRC/49/23)
AlkuperäinenArkistointi odottaa
TarkkailuraporttiInter-American Commission on Human RightsOctober 25, 2021Uusi
Nicaragua: Concentration of Power and the Undermining of the Rule of Law
AlkuperäinenArkistointi odottaa
TarkkailuraporttiInter-American Commission on Human RightsNovember 10, 2021
IACHR tuomitsee Nicaraguan vuoden 2021 vaalien yhteydessä raportoidut ihmisoikeusloukkaukset
AlkuperäinenArkistoitu
Tuomioistuimen ratkaisuInter-American Court of Human RightsNovember 22, 2021Uusi
Asunto Juan Sebastian Chamorro y otros respecto de Nicaragua: Medidas Provisionales, Resolucion de 22 de noviembre de 2021
AlkuperäinenArkistointi odottaa
Alustan raporttiMeta PlatformsNovember 1, 2021Uusi
October 2021 Coordinated Inauthentic Behavior Report
AlkuperäinenArkistointi odottaa
TutkimusUrnas Abiertas, International IDEA and Centro de Estudios Politicos y de Gobierno, Universidad Catolica Andres BelloOctober 27, 2021Uusi
Nicaragua: Elecciones 2021: Un plan doloso para acabar con la democracia
AlkuperäinenArkistointi odottaa
TutkimusCongressional Research ServiceJune 3, 2022Uusi
Nicaragua in Brief: Political Developments and U.S. Policy (R46860)
AlkuperäinenArkistointi odottaa
JournalismiVoz de America (Voice of America)November 5, 2021Uusi
Quienes son los candidatos a la presidencia en las elecciones de Nicaragua del 2021
AlkuperäinenArkistointi odottaa

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