Voľby
Nicaragua 2021 General Election
November 7, 2021
The Supreme Electoral Council declared Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo re-elected with 75.87 per cent of valid votes on a reported turnout of 65.26 per cent, and the FSLN took 75 of the 90 directly elected National Assembly seats. In the six months before the vote the Council cancelled the legal status of three opposition parties, including the only one that had registered an opposition presidential ticket, and seven presidential aspirants were detained. No impartial international observation mission was invited, and on 12 November 2021 the OAS General Assembly declared the elections neither free, fair nor transparent and without democratic legitimacy.
Oficiálne výsledky
The table shows the presidential and vice-presidential race as declared in the CSE's third provisional report of 10 November 2021, covering 99.99 per cent of tally sheets from 13,459 polling boards in 3,106 voting centres. Percentages are of the 2,759,743 valid votes; there were 2,921,430 votes cast in total and 161,687 null ballots, and the six party shares sum exactly to the valid total. The same ballot filled 90 National Assembly seats and 20 Central American Parliament seats; the FSLN won 75 of the 90 Assembly seats, the PLC 9, the ALN 2, the PLI 2, APRE 1 and YATAMA 1. Nicaragua holds no presidential run-off: the IACHR records that the 2014 constitutional reform eliminated the second round and made a simple majority sufficient, superseding the threshold of 40 per cent of valid votes, or 35 per cent with a five-point lead over the runner-up, that the 2000 reform had introduced.
- FSLN (Daniel Ortega)75,9%2 093 834
Frente Sandinista de Liberacion Nacional; Rosario Murillo elected vice-president on the same ticket.
- PLC (Walter Espinoza)14,3%395 406
Partido Liberal Constitucionalista; as runner-up Espinoza took a seat in the National Assembly under article 133 of the Constitution.
- CCN (Guillermo Osorno)3,3%89 853
Camino Cristiano Nicaraguense.
- ALN (Marcelo Montiel)3,1%85 711
Alianza Liberal Nicaraguense.
- APRE (Gerson Gutierrez)1,8%48 429
Alianza por la Republica.
- PLI (Mauricio Orue)1,7%46 510
Partido Liberal Independiente.
Register integrity
Čo dôkazy preukazujú a čo nepreukazujú — vedľa seba, pričom každé zistenie má uvedený zdroj a je odstupňované.
Čo je preukázané
- Porušenia procesuPotvrdené
The electoral authority cancelled the legal status of three opposition parties during the electoral period, including the only party that had registered an opposition presidential ticket.
Viac podrobností
OHCHR records that the Council dissolved the Conservative Party and annulled the legal personality of the Party of Democratic Restoration on 18 May 2021, and annulled that of Ciudadanos por la Libertad on 6 August 2021, only hours after a complaint had been presented by another political party and four days after that party had registered the presidential ticket of Oscar Sobalvarro and Berenice Quezada. The IACHR documents the same three cancellations but dates the Restoration Party's to 19 May and the Conservative Party's to 20 May, and reports that the August resolution was said to have been adopted in violation of the Nicaraguan Constitution. Urnas Abiertas and International IDEA likewise record the cancellation of three opposition parties during the electoral period.
- Porušenia procesuPotvrdené
Seven presidential aspirants were deprived of their liberty before the candidate registration deadline, which in practice removed them from the contest.
Viac podrobností
OHCHR found that seven pre-candidates were arbitrarily deprived of liberty between 2 June and 24 July 2021 and that keeping them in detention or house arrest with no means of communication de facto prevented them from participating. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights, ruling on provisional measures for 22 beneficiaries of whom 21 were then detained, found that the detentions and prosecutions prima facie showed a process of harassment and criminalisation that would have had effects on those persons' participation in the November general elections, and held that Nicaragua's rejection of its release orders amounted to contempt of the Court.
- Porušenia procesuPotvrdené
No impartial international observation mission was present; the electoral law had replaced the category of observer with that of accompanier.
Viac podrobností
Electoral Law No. 1070 substituted electoral companions for electoral observers, and the president of the CSE said companions would not act as impartial international observers. The CSE reported 232 companions from 27 countries. OHCHR records that no impartial international observers were invited despite repeated OAS calls, and that at least seven international journalists were refused entry.
- Informačné operáciePotvrdené
Six days before the vote Meta removed a cross-platform troll farm it attributed to the government of Nicaragua and the governing party, run largely from state institutions.
Viac podrobností
Meta removed 937 Facebook accounts, 140 Pages, 24 Groups and 363 Instagram accounts; about 585,000 accounts followed one or more of the Pages, about 74,500 had joined one or more of the Groups and about 125,000 followed one or more of the Instagram accounts, and the network had spent around 12,000 US dollars on advertising. It said the operation was run primarily by employees of the telecommunications and postal regulator TELCOR from the postal service headquarters in Managua, with smaller clusters at the Supreme Court and the social security institute, and had run across seven platforms since April 2018. OHCHR recorded the same takedown, describing it as a network of over 1,000 accounts, and noted that Twitter and YouTube also closed accounts associated with it.
- Porušenia procesuPotvrdené
The OAS General Assembly declared the 7 November elections neither free, fair nor transparent and without democratic legitimacy.
Viac podrobností
Resolution AG/RES. 2978 (LI-O/21), adopted at the fourth plenary session on 12 November 2021, also concluded that democratic institutions in Nicaragua had been seriously undermined by the Government, reiterated calls for the release of political candidates and political prisoners, and instructed the Permanent Council to complete a collective assessment by 30 November. OHCHR records that the Government announced on 19 November 2021 that it was withdrawing Nicaragua's membership of the OAS, a process that takes two years.
- Štatistické anomáliePotvrdené viacerými zdrojmi
The official turnout figure and the citizen observatory's estimate differ by some 47 percentage points, and no adjudicating body has resolved the gap.
Viac podrobností
The CSE reported 2,921,430 votes cast and turnout of 65.26 per cent. The Congressional Research Service records that the Nicaraguan opposition observation group Urnas Abiertas, which it says had 1,450 monitors trying to observe the elections, estimated turnout at approximately 18 per cent. The CSE published only aggregate national and constituency totals, so the two figures cannot be tested against one another.
Čo nie je preukázané
- Falsifikácia výsledkuTvrdí sa
No audit, recount or court ruling has examined whether the declared vote totals match the ballots cast.
Viac podrobností
The CSE published only aggregate totals by party, national and by constituency, and gave parties three days to lodge review appeals; no polling-station tally sheets were published, and none of the sources cited here records an audit, a recount or a judicial examination of the count. The OAS resolution and the UN and IACHR findings address the conditions under which the vote was held, not the arithmetic of the tally, so falsification of the count itself is documented as an allegation rather than a finding.
- Štatistické anomálieTvrdí sa
The true level of participation is not established by either the official figure or the observatory estimate.
Viac podrobností
The Urnas Abiertas figure rests on what its 1,450 monitors were able to observe rather than on a count of ballots, and the group's own election-day methodology has not been published; the official figure cannot be checked because station-level records were not published. Neither number has been verified by an independent audit.
- Zahraničné zasahovanieTvrdí sa
No cited body attributed foreign state interference in this election.
Viac podrobností
The only platform takedown associated with the vote was attributed by Meta to the government of Nicaragua and the FSLN, that is to domestic state actors. Meta removed the network under its policy against foreign or government interference, but named no foreign actor and described the operation as targeting domestic audiences. Nothing in the OAS, UN, IACHR or Inter-American Court record cited here makes a finding of foreign interference.
- Informačné operácieTvrdí sa
The removal of a state-run inauthentic network does not establish that it changed how people voted or whether they voted.
Viac podrobností
Meta reported reach figures for the network but made no assessment of electoral effect, and OHCHR framed the abuse of public institutions as incompatible with a genuine electoral process without claiming a measurable impact on the result.
- Porušenia procesuTvrdí sa
The claim that roughly a million voters were struck from the register is a technical estimate that no authority has confirmed or rebutted.
Viac podrobností
Urnas Abiertas and International IDEA compared a 2021 register of 4,478,334 with 5,095,747 in 2017 and argued that natural growth should have produced about 5.5 million entries. The CSE never published the register or explained the change, so the size of any exclusion remains unverified.
Zdroje:1
Posúdenie procesu
There was no independent assessment of election-day administration, because no impartial international mission observed the vote and the president of the CSE said that the accompanier category which replaced observers in Electoral Law No. 1070 would not act as impartial international observers. The assessments that exist are of the conditions surrounding the vote: OHCHR and the IACHR documented the dissolution of opposition parties, the detention of presidential aspirants and one-sided coverage by government-owned broadcasters, the Inter-American Court found the state in contempt of its release orders, and the OAS General Assembly concluded that the elections had no democratic legitimacy. The CSE, for its part, ran the vote under the slogan 'free elections, sovereign elections' and reported a historic level of citizen participation, and its proclamation resolution states that it guaranteed the highest democratic standards of participation, inclusion, transparency and equality.