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New Zealand 2023 General Election

October 14, 2023

The National Party won 38.08% of the party vote and 48 of 122 seats at the mixed-member proportional election held on 14 October 2023, ahead of Labour on 26.91% and 34 seats. After a journalist queried the accuracy of the party vote at one voting place, the Electoral Commission investigated and, six days after declaring the official result, reissued it with corrections to the 22 errors it had by then identified, including a ballot box of 620 East Coast votes that was counted on election night but omitted from the official count. The Auditor-General's independent review found the Commission's quality assurance checks had been ineffective or not carried out, while confirming that none of the errors changed the party vote outcome, any electorate result or the allocation of seats. Three judicial recounts and a delayed by-election in Port Waikato likewise left every outcome intact.

공식 결과

인증 기관 New Zealand Electoral Commission (Te Kaitiaki Take Kowhiri)투표율 78.2%

The table is the amended official party-vote result the Commission published on 9 November 2023, replacing the declaration of 3 November. Percentages are of the 2,851,220 party votes counted; the amended table records 2,884,118 votes cast in total, while the Justice Committee's 2024 report gives 2,884,111. Seat counts are in each row's note. Parliament stood at 122 seats on these results, including a two-seat overhang because Te Pati Maori won more electorate seats than its party vote share alone would have given it. Electorate voting in Port Waikato was cancelled after a candidate died, so only 71 electorate MPs were returned; the by-election held on 25 November 2023 took Parliament to 123. The highest-polling party to miss the 5% threshold and win no electorate seat was The Opportunities Party, on 2.22% (63,344 votes).

  • 48 seats: 43 electorate, 5 list

  • Labour Party (Chris Hipkins)26.9%767,538

    34 seats: 17 electorate, 17 list

  • Green Party (James Shaw and Marama Davidson)11.6%330,915

    15 seats: 3 electorate, 12 list

  • ACT New Zealand (David Seymour)8.6%246,473

    11 seats: 2 electorate, 9 list

  • New Zealand First Party (Winston Peters)6.1%173,554

    8 seats, all list

  • Te Pati Maori (Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer)3.1%87,845

    6 seats, all electorate; below the 5% threshold but qualifying through electorate wins, producing a two-seat overhang

출처:123

무결성 원장

증거가 입증하는 것과 입증하지 않는 것을 나란히 제시하며 — 각 발견은 출처가 명시되고 등급이 부여됩니다.

입증된 사항

  • 절차 위반확인됨

    The Electoral Commission's declared official result contained counting and data entry errors, which it investigated and corrected six days later after a journalist queried one voting place's party-vote figures.

    자세한 내용

    The Auditor-General and the Justice Committee both record that the errors came to light when a journalist queried the accuracy of the party vote after the 3 November 2023 declaration; the Commission's own quality assurance had not detected them. The amended results of 9 November 2023 listed three voting places with party-vote data entry errors, 15 with candidate-vote errors, one electorate where special-vote data was entered incorrectly and five voting places that recorded election-day votes as advance votes. Corrections added 693 party votes and 708 candidate votes, taking the party-vote total from 2,850,527 to 2,851,220. The Justice Committee records that the Auditor-General's review considered the 22 errors the Commission had by then identified.

    출처:1234
  • 절차 위반확인됨

    A ballot box of 620 votes in the East Coast electorate was counted on election night but omitted from the official count.

    자세한 내용

    Two advance-voting ballot boxes were merged in the results system on election night but not physically merged, and the paperwork was not reconciled. During the official count only one of them was counted. The check that compares the official count against the election-night count was not done, so a discrepancy of 611 votes went unnoticed; on recounting, the figure rose to 620.

    출처:12
  • 절차 위반확인됨

    The Auditor-General found the Commission's quality assurance over the official count was ineffective and in places simply not carried out.

    자세한 내용

    Electorate checks were either not done or not done with the required rigour, and some electorate managers signed final result certificates without completing or verifying the reasonableness checks. There was no system to evidence that checks had been done, no fully documented standard operating procedures for the National Office steps, and a final quality assurance process that would normally take two days was completed in a few hours on the morning the result was announced.

    출처:123
  • 절차 위반확인됨

    Instructions to remove apparent dual votes before the official result were not universally followed, and the Commission did not know this at the time.

    자세한 내용

    Section 176 of the Electoral Act 1993 requires apparent dual votes to be removed. On the evening before the declaration the Commission told electorate staff to resolve outstanding cases on the information available and extract the rest. When the official results were announced, 892 apparent dual votes remained on electorate reports that might not have been handled as instructed. Because the Commission was unaware, the issue was not before the judges at the judicial recounts; it later briefed the Chief District Court Judge and the three recount judges.

    출처:12
  • 절차 위반확인됨

    The Justice Committee considered the Commission's selection of Manurewa Marae as a voting place to have been unwise.

    자세한 내용

    The marae's chief executive was a candidate in the election. The Commission stated it was aware of the candidate's involvement with marae management during venue selection, obtained an agreement that the candidate would enter the voting place only to vote, assigned a designated contact person and briefed marae staff on the election advertising rules. The Committee nonetheless heard evidence that the venue was not a neutral polling place and that its alignment with a particular party and candidate was apparent, which it said the offering of food linked to voting exacerbated. It recommended the Government encourage the Commission to better monitor connections between polling sites and candidates, avoid premises with direct connections to candidates or parties, and consider requiring polling sites to be policy- and viewpoint-neutral. The Commission plans to review its guidance on political neutrality in selecting voting places, and the Committee agreed that review is necessary.

    출처:1
  • 정보 작전주장됨

    One content study reports that outright fake news on party and leader Facebook pages stayed at 2020 levels while half-truths roughly doubled.

    자세한 내용

    The New Zealand Social Media Study, led by Mona Krewel at Te Herenga Waka Victoria University of Wellington, fact-checked more than 4,000 Facebook posts by parties and party leaders across the five weeks before election day. It reports that fake news averaged 2.6% of posts per week against 2.5% in 2020, peaking at 3.8% in the final week, while half-truths rose from a 2.5% weekly average in 2020 to 4.8% in 2023, peaking at 6.5%. The tier here is set by the sourcing rule rather than by doubt about the study: the figures rest on a single research group's own account of its unpublished coding, with no second study or official finding pointing the same way.

    출처:1
  • 정보 작전확인됨

    The Commission ran escalation arrangements with social media platforms for false information about the election process, and two complaints were made under the Electoral Act's false-statement provision.

    자세한 내용

    The Justice Committee records that during the 2023 election cycle the Commission worked with online social media providers and established escalation mechanisms to report breaches of the election advertising rules and to report misinformation or disinformation about the election process. The Commission corrects and, if necessary, escalates concerns about false information on enrolling or voting, and at this election published videos and information addressing matters it expected to be the subject of incorrect information. Section 199A of the Electoral Act makes it an offence and a corrupt practice to knowingly publish false statements intended to influence voters on polling day or the two days before; the Commission received two complaints under it for the 2023 election, neither of which required further action. The Committee recommended extending the prohibition to the entire voting period, given the growth in advance voting.

    출처:1
  • 절차 위반확인됨

    The Commission referred four individuals to Police for enrolling and voting while on the Corrupt Practices List, and referred several broadcasters and promoters over election advertising.

    자세한 내용

    On 21 November 2023 the Commission referred three individuals to Police for enrolling and voting while on the Corrupt Practices List, which disqualifies a person from enrolling or voting for three years after conviction for a corrupt practice; it referred a fourth on 12 December 2023. It cited section 118 (false statement for enrolment purposes) and section 227 (voting while on the list) of the Electoral Act 1993. Separately, on 27 September 2023 it referred Rhema Media to Police over election programmes broadcast on radio outside the election period under section 80I of the Broadcasting Act, and made a further referral over signs promoting Te Pati Maori published without a promoter statement under section 204F of the Electoral Act. In every case the Commission stated the matter was with Police and that it would not comment further; the cited sources record referrals of alleged breaches, not findings of guilt.

    출처:12

입증되지 않은 사항

  • 결과 조작반박됨

    The counting errors did not change the party vote outcome, any electorate result or the allocation of seats.

    자세한 내용

    The Commission stated this when it reissued the results on 9 November 2023, the Auditor-General confirmed it in his May 2024 review, and the Justice Committee recorded it in November 2024. Turnout was unchanged at 78.2%.

    출처:123
  • 결과 조작반박됨

    The three judicial recounts confirmed the winners of the official count and changed no result.

    자세한 내용

    Applications for judicial recounts in Nelson, Mt Albert and Tamaki Makaurau were lodged on 8 November 2023. The Nelson decision issued on 10 November and the Mt Albert and Tamaki Makaurau decisions on 15 November. In each case the count was carried out by counting staff in the presence of the Judge, the Returning Officer, scrutineers appointed by the candidates and Electoral Commission staff. Each judgment records minor variations in the numbers but no overall difference to the outcome, and each Judge made an amended declaration of the result under section 180(10) of the Electoral Act 1993. That includes Tamaki Makaurau, where the official count had left a margin of 4 votes.

    출처:12345
  • 결과 조작상호 입증됨

    The apparent dual votes left in the count are not shown to have changed any electorate result, but the assurance rests on the Commission's own later analysis.

    자세한 내용

    The Commission's further analysis, reported by the Auditor-General, identified 321 apparent dual votes that could have affected candidate counts across all electorates, and in the one narrow-margin electorate that concerned the auditors it concluded that at most 24 votes may have been involved. No independent recount of those electorates was carried out on this ground, and the recount judges said there was nothing they could have done differently on the information they had.

    출처:12
  • 절차 위반다툼 중

    An allegation that food and drink provided at Manurewa Marae amounted to the offence of treating was not upheld by the Commission, and some members of the Justice Committee did not find that conclusion convincing.

    자세한 내용

    A submitter to the Justice Committee maintained that the marae breached the treating rules in section 217 of the Electoral Act, which applies to giving food, drink or entertainment for the purpose of corruptly influencing how a person votes. Another submitter argued the offence should be removed as disproportionately affecting Maori. The Commission received complaints about the provision of food and other activities while the voting place was operating; it had advised marae management that food and activities could be provided to everyone coming to the marae as manaakitanga, and on the information it received did not consider the test for treating was met. Some members of the Committee recorded that they found the Commission's stance unconvincing. The Committee noted that the offence and the case law do not let the Commission give the certainty parties and candidates want, and recommended the offence be reviewed for clarity. No prosecution is recorded in the cited sources.

    출처:1
  • 결과 조작주장됨

    Nothing in the cited record points to deliberate manipulation of the count.

    자세한 내용

    The Auditor-General traced the identified errors to misplaced ballot papers, manual data entry mistakes and checks that were not performed, and stated that his findings should not be taken as criticism of any individuals. He described a process that relies heavily on paper ballots, manual counting, manual data entry and manual checking, with electronic processes used to verify voter information and to collate and record results in the Commission's election management system. His review examined quality assurance, not any allegation of intent, so it cannot speak to matters outside that scope.

    출처:12
  • 정보 작전주장됨

    The available content research cannot show whether misinformation affected how anyone voted.

    자세한 내용

    The New Zealand Social Media Study coded Facebook posts published by parties and party leaders. It does not measure reach or persuasion, does not cover other platforms or non-party accounts, and says nothing about the administration of the vote. The Justice Committee heard submitters both urging stronger action on disinformation and warning that such action could impinge on free speech, but recorded no measurement of any effect on voting. No fetched source documents specific false claims about the 2023 count or any Commission rebuttal of them.

    출처:12
  • 절차 위반주장됨

    The Commission's referrals to Police are allegations of breach; the cited sources record no charge, prosecution or conviction arising from them.

    자세한 내용

    The Commission's practice on referral is to state that the matter is with Police and to make no further comment, so its own releases carry the allegation but not any outcome. Neither the Auditor-General's review nor the Justice Committee's inquiry reports the disposition of the 2023 referrals. The releases do not say which electorates the four individuals voted in, so the referrals cannot be related to any particular electorate margin.

    출처:12

절차 평가

New Zealand's election is not internationally observed, so the assessment comes from domestic accountability bodies. The errors in the official count were not caught by the Commission's own quality assurance: a journalist's query prompted the investigation that found them, and the Commission then disclosed and corrected them within six days and asked the Auditor-General to review its quality assurance. His May 2024 report found the checks ineffective or not carried out and made seven recommendations, which the Commission told the Justice Committee it had fully accepted. District Court judges conducted three judicial recounts under the Electoral Act, and the Justice Committee's November 2024 inquiry examined the count, the enrolment surge, polling place neutrality and the by-election that followed a candidate's death. Every one of those processes concluded that the declared outcome stood.

출처:12345

통계적 주석

출처13

공식 보고서New Zealand Electoral CommissionNovember 3, 2023새로움
Official results for the 2023 General Election
원본보관본
공식 보고서New Zealand Electoral CommissionNovember 9, 2023새로움
Amended official results released
원본보관본
법원 판결District Court of New ZealandNovember 10, 2023새로움
Re An Application for a Recount of Electorate Votes in the Nelson Electorate [2023] NZDC 24815
원본보관 대기 중
법원 판결District Court of New ZealandNovember 15, 2023새로움
Re An Application for a Recount of Electorate Votes in the Maori Electorate of Tamaki Makaurau [2023] NZDC 24875
원본보관 대기 중
법원 판결District Court of New ZealandNovember 15, 2023새로움
Re An Application by Melissa Lee for a Recount of Electorate Votes in the Mt Albert District [2023] NZDC 25093
원본보관 대기 중
공식 보고서Controller and Auditor-General of New Zealand (Office of the Auditor-General)May 1, 2024새로움
General Election 2023: Independent review of counting errors - Auditor-General's overview
원본보관 대기 중
공식 보고서Controller and Auditor-General of New Zealand (Office of the Auditor-General)May 1, 2024새로움
General Election 2023: Independent review of counting errors - Part 4: The errors and why they happened
원본보관 대기 중
공식 보고서Controller and Auditor-General of New Zealand (Office of the Auditor-General)May 1, 2024새로움
General Election 2023: Independent review of counting errors - Our recommendations
원본보관 대기 중
공식 보고서Justice Committee, New Zealand House of RepresentativesNovember 2024새로움
Inquiry into the 2023 General Election
원본보관 대기 중
공식 보고서New Zealand Electoral CommissionDecember 6, 2023새로움
Port Waikato by-election official results
원본보관본
공식 보고서New Zealand Electoral CommissionDecember 12, 2023새로움
Referral to Police (enrolling and voting while on the Corrupt Practices List)
원본보관본
공식 보고서New Zealand Electoral CommissionSeptember 27, 2023새로움
Referrals to Police (election advertising, 27 September 2023)
원본보관본
연구New Zealand Social Media Study, Te Herenga Waka Victoria University of Wellington (published by The Conversation)November 14, 2023새로움
Fake news didn't play a big role in NZ's 2023 election - but there was a rise in 'small lies'
원본보관 대기 중

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