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Germany 2021 Federal Election

September 26, 2021

In the weeks before the Bundestag vote, the Ghostwriter campaign ran spear-phishing against German federal and regional lawmakers to steal credentials for disinformation. Germany protested to Moscow and the EU issued a joint condemnation, but the attempts did not affect the count: Germany votes on hand-counted paper ballots, and an SPD-led coalition under Olaf Scholz took office. Another case of interference aimed at the information space, not the ballot box.

Official results

Certified by Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter)Turnout 76.4%
  • SPD25.7%
  • CDU/CSU24.1%
  • Alliance 90/The Greens14.8%
  • FDP11.5%
  • AfD10.3%
Sources:1

The Integrity Ledger

What the evidence establishes, and what it does not — side by side, each finding sourced and tiered.

What is established

  • Foreign interferenceConfirmed

    Ahead of the 26 September vote, the Ghostwriter campaign ran spear-phishing against German lawmakers. The German government said the email accounts of seven Bundestag members and 31 members of regional parliaments were targeted, to steal credentials for later disinformation. Germany protested to Russia and, on 24 September 2021, the EU issued a joint declaration condemning the activity.

    Sources:123

What is not established

  • Result falsificationDebunked

    There is no evidence the operation affected the outcome. The phishing sought login credentials, not the vote count; Germany uses hand-counted paper ballots; and the SPD-led result stood, with Olaf Scholz forming a government.

    Sources:12
  • Foreign interferenceContested

    Attribution to a single state is contested. Germany and the EU named the Russian state, specifically the GRU; the security firm Mandiant instead links the technical operator, UNC1151, to Belarus. Both point to state backing but name different states.

    Sources:12

Related operations

Actors involved

Sources5

ResearchHeinrich Böll StiftungSeptember 29, 2021
A brief analysis of the German federal election 2021
OriginalArchive pending
JournalismThe Washington PostSeptember 6, 2021
Germany complains to Russia over pre-election cyber attacks
OriginalArchive pending
JournalismCyberScoopSeptember 2021
Hackers target German lawmakers in an election year
OriginalArchive pending
JournalismCyberScoop (reporting Mandiant)November 2021
Mandiant links Belarus to Ghostwriter campaign, which leaked stolen data and pushed disinformation
OriginalArchive pending