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France 2017 Presidential Election

23 kwietnia 2017 – 7 maja 2017

A foreign hack-and-leak operation dumped Emmanuel Macron's campaign emails online 44 hours before the run-off, but it did not alter the outcome: Macron won 66.1% to 33.9%. Hand-counted paper ballots, a mandatory pre-vote media blackout, and obvious forgeries in the leak blunted the operation — a textbook case of interference that is not falsification.

Wyniki oficjalne

Potwierdzone przez Constitutional Council (Conseil constitutionnel)Frekwencja 74,6%

First round, 23 April 2017 (turnout 77.77%)

  • Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!)24%8 657 326
  • Marine Le Pen (Front National)21,3%7 679 493
  • François Fillon (Les Républicains)20%7 213 797
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France insoumise)19,6%7 060 885
  • Benoît Hamon (Parti socialiste)6,4%2 291 565

Run-off, 7 May 2017

  • Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!)66,1%20 743 128
  • Marine Le Pen (Front National)33,9%10 638 475
Źródła:1

Rejestr integralności

Co dowody ustalają, a czego nie — obok siebie, każde ustalenie z podanym źródłem i poziomem pewności.

Co zostało ustalone

  • Operacje informacyjnePotwierdzone

    A hack-and-leak dump of roughly nine gigabytes of stolen En Marche emails appeared online on 5 May 2017, hours before the mandatory pre-vote media blackout. Forged documents were mixed in with genuine ones, and the material was amplified as #MacronLeaks to about half a million tweets within 24 hours by bot networks and US alt-right accounts.

    Źródła:12
  • Zagraniczna ingerencjaUprawdopodobnione

    The campaign was targeted by spear-phishing in the weeks before the leak. Trend Micro linked the phishing infrastructure to APT28 (GRU) in April 2017, and in October 2020 the United States indicted six officers of GRU Unit 74455 (Sandworm) for the 2017 hack-and-leak against En Marche.

    Źródła:123

Czego nie ustalono

  • Fałszerstwo wynikuObalone

    There is no evidence the operation changed the result. Macron won decisively (66.1% to 33.9%) on hand-counted paper ballots; the leak's timing against the media blackout, the electoral commission's warning not to republish it, and the obvious forgeries in the dump all limited its effect.

    Źródła:12
  • Zagraniczna ingerencjaSporne

    Attribution was not established in real time. France's cyber-defence agency ANSSI found no APT28 fingerprints in the leak, and its director said the attack was 'so generic and simple that it could have been practically anyone.' A formal state attribution came later and from abroad — the 2020 US indictment — not from France in 2017.

    Źródła:1

Ocena przebiegu

The vote itself was administered normally. The Constitutional Council reviewed the count and annulled 16,467 ballots across 38 of 69,242 polling stations (0.05% of votes cast) — routine local irregularities, with no finding that the tally was compromised.

Źródła:1

Źródła6

BadanieAtlantic Councilczerwiec 2021
The #MacronLeaks operation: a post-mortem
OryginałArchiwizacja w toku
BadanieDFRLab (Atlantic Council)5 maja 2017
Hashtag Campaign: #MacronLeaks
OryginałArchiwizacja w toku
DziennikarstwoBBC News (reporting Trend Micro)kwiecień 2017
Russian hackers 'target' presidential candidate Macron
OryginałArchiwizacja w toku
DziennikarstwoAssociated Press (via The Washington Times)2 czerwca 2017
France says Macron campaign hack shows no sign of Russian involvement (ANSSI director Guillaume Poupard, AP interview)
OryginałArchiwizacja w toku