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HeldBrazil

Brazil 2022 Presidential Election

October 2, 2022 – October 30, 2022

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by 50.90% to 49.10% in Brazil's closest presidential runoff of the democratic era. The election took place after sustained attacks on electronic voting. Those attacks are documented: the TSE later found Bolsonaro abused political power and misused media in an official event aimed at discrediting the system. The count-manipulation claims are a separate question. TCU comparisons of physical ballot bulletins, published records and integrity tests found no divergence, while the TSE rejected the Liberal Party's post-election challenge for lack of supporting indications.

Official results

Certified by Superior Electoral Court of BrazilTurnout 79.4%

First round, 2 October

Runoff, 30 October

Sources:1

The Integrity Ledger

What the evidence establishes, and what it does not — side by side, each finding sourced and tiered.

What is established

  • Information operationsConfirmed

    The incumbent used an official event and public communication channels to attack the electoral system without evidence.

    More detail

    In a later election-law judgment, the TSE found Jair Bolsonaro responsible for abuse of political power and misuse of media after a meeting with ambassadors that deployed public resources to disseminate unsupported claims about electronic voting. The finding concerned the campaign environment and institutional trust; it was not a finding that votes had been altered.

    Sources:1
  • Process violationsCorroborated

    The election unfolded amid polarization, disinformation, attacks on electoral institutions and political violence.

    More detail

    The OAS mission documented these pressures while also finding that the TSE and regional electoral courts demonstrated professionalism and institutional robustness in administering the vote.

    Sources:1

What is not established

  • Result falsificationDebunked

    Direct checks found no evidence that the audited electronic records or ballot bulletins had been altered.

    More detail

    The TCU found no divergence when sampled physical ballot bulletins were compared with published electronic records, no divergence in 641 integrity-test machines and no indication of fraud in the procedures it reviewed. These checks address recorded totals directly; they are stronger evidence than viral screenshots or unexplained numerical patterns.

    Sources:1
  • Statistical anomaliesDebunked

    Different candidate shares across voting-machine models did not establish that older machines were unidentifiable or fraudulent.

    More detail

    The Liberal Party sought extraordinary verification of machines built before 2020. The TSE found no supporting indication, noted that machines of all models were individually traceable and had been used in both rounds, and confirmed dismissal of the request. A correlation between machine model and candidate share can reflect where different models were deployed; it is not a causal test of manipulation.

    Sources:12

Process assessment

Brazil's election administration completed and published the count quickly under intense political pressure. The institutional record is mixed in a precise way: the campaign included a judicially established abuse aimed at discrediting the system, but independent technical comparisons and judicial review did not substantiate claims that the machine count was false.

Sources:1234

Statistical notes

Sources5

Official reportSuperior Electoral Court of BrazilDecember 6, 2022
TSE final totalization and proclamation of the 2022 presidential result
OriginalArchive pending
Official reportFederal Court of Accounts of BrazilMay 31, 2023
Audit of Brazil's 2022 electronic voting system and ballot bulletins
OriginalArchive pending
Observer reportOrganization of American States Electoral Observation MissionNovember 1, 2022
OAS Electoral Observation Mission preliminary report after Brazil's second round
OriginalArchive pending
Court rulingSuperior Electoral Court of BrazilDecember 15, 2022
TSE confirms rejection of the PL challenge to older voting-machine models
OriginalArchive pending
Court rulingSuperior Electoral Court of BrazilJune 30, 2023
TSE ruling on abuse of political power and misuse of media in the 2022 election
OriginalArchive pending

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