Nigeria 2023 Presidential Election
February 25, 2023
INEC declared Bola Tinubu elected with 36.6% in Nigeria's most competitive presidential race since the return to civilian rule. The administration did not deliver the transparency it had promised: late openings, violence and the failure to publish many presidential result forms promptly damaged trust. A national parallel tabulation adds an important boundary to the case. Yiaga Africa found every candidate's national share inside its statistical range and said altered collation identified in Rivers and Imo did not change the national outcome. That supports the declared national ordering while leaving the documented exclusion, local manipulation and process failures fully in view.
Official results
- Bola Tinubu — All Progressives Congress36.6%8,794,726
Declared elected
- Atiku Abubakar — People's Democratic Party29.1%6,984,520
- Peter Obi — Labour Party25.4%6,101,533
- Rabiu Kwankwaso — New Nigeria People's Party6.2%1,496,687
The Integrity Ledger
What the evidence establishes, and what it does not — side by side, each finding sourced and tiered.
What is established
- Process violationsConfirmed
INEC's delayed and failed publication of many presidential polling-unit forms broke the central transparency expectation attached to IReV.
More detail
The EU mission found that operational failures and a lack of transparency severely damaged public confidence. Presidential result forms were not uploaded promptly even while other contests uploaded more successfully, and INEC did not communicate a timely, convincing explanation. The failure did not itself alter the paper forms, but it removed the promised real-time public check during the most sensitive phase.
- Process violationsCorroborated
Late openings, violence, intimidation and uneven administration denied or burdened participation in parts of the country.
More detail
International and domestic observers documented substantial regional disparities, delayed deployment, attacks and cases where polling could not take place or voters were deterred. These are integrity failures even where the ballots eventually cast were counted correctly.
- Result falsificationCorroborated
Yiaga Africa identified state-level collation manipulation in Rivers and Imo.
More detail
Yiaga's polling-unit observer data and PRVT estimates were inconsistent with the announced state aggregates in Rivers and Imo. The organization said figures were altered at collation level, while its sampled polling-unit records matched the uploaded EC8A images it could locate. It also concluded that these two state discrepancies were not large enough to change the national presidential outcome.
Sources:1
What is not established
- Result falsificationContested
The available parallel tabulation does not support a claim that the national candidate ordering was reversed.
More detail
Yiaga's representative national sample placed the official shares of APC, PDP, Labour and NNPP within their expected ranges. It specifically assessed that the manipulation it identified in Rivers and Imo did not affect the overall outcome. Because polling failures and intimidation excluded some voters, this verifies the aggregation of ballots cast more strongly than it verifies equal access to cast them.
Sources:1 - Statistical anomaliesDebunked
Low turnout and regional differences do not, by themselves, demonstrate a fabricated national tally.
More detail
The national turnout was historically low and administration varied sharply by region. Yiaga's turnout estimate nevertheless included the official rate within its margin of error, while its candidate-share ranges also included the official national figures. The anomalies are evidence of participation and administration problems, not a standalone statistical proof of a different winner.
Process assessment
The election fell well short of the transparent, inclusive process voters had been led to expect. Paper-ballot counting and a national citizen parallel tabulation provide evidence for the announced national ordering, while observer records establish serious failures in access, election-day operations, IReV publication and some state collation. The case should not be flattened into either 'nothing happened' or 'the national winner was statistically disproved.' Neither is supported.